Admittedly, it's strange for my first blog entry to begin with speculations on the end of English language teaching.
And yet, whenever I read ELT conference titles like, "Trends in EFL" or "Using Technology in EFL", I can't help but think of other recent technological trends, especially those in computing power and artificial intelligence.
TRENDS IN COMPUTATIONAL POWER
In 1965, Gordon E. Moore, the co-founder of Intel and Fairchild Semiconductor, published a paper in which he described a doubling every year in the number of components per integrated circuit. He later revised his prediction in 1975 to a doubling once every two years. This is known as Moore's law.
Despite some criticism (mainly that exponential growth cannot continue indefinitely), predictions of exponential growth in computing power have proven to be, so far, more or less accurate.
Given this background, predictions that computer intelligence will exceed human intelligence sometime during the next fifteen to twenty years seem not at all far-fetched. The exact date that this happens has been referred to as the 'singularity'.
GOOGLE TRANSLATE
"And don't just write your paragraph in your own language and then use Google Translate", I regularly admonish the students in my writing class.
"Why not?" they sometimes ask. "Because," I answer, "when you do that, anyone can tell that a computer has translated it! It's okay with individual words and short phrases, but it's terrible with longer chunks of language." I continue, "And if you do, I'll just make you write it over again." Moans from my students.
And then I hesitate a moment before I add - somewhat uncomfortably - "When Google Translate gets better, you won't have to learn English."
AUGMENTED REALITY EARBUDS
ARE ... 'HERE'
In February of this year, livescience.com reported on the unveiling of a new product by 'Here Active Listening' - wireless earbuds (similar to the ones used with your cell phone, but without the connecting wires).
"New earbuds from Here Active Listening can now instantly transform sounds from your surroundings. These wearable devices seek to 'augment reality' - in this case your soundscape. In the future, these devices could enable translation of live speech, much like the 'universal translators' in 'Star Trek', said researchers at Doppler Labs, where the Here system was invented. 'We believe in a future where supercomputers can fit in the ears,' Noah Kraft, co-founder and CEO of Doppler Labs, told Live Science."
WHAT NEXT?
Well, yeah .... That's a lot to wrap your head around, especially
if you're an English teacher, a student of English, or anyone who has ever remembered to pack a phrase book before they set off on that exotic getaway.
Just imagine, in about twenty or thirty years, once computing power has doubled, and doubled, and doubled again - to a point where it far surpasses human intelligence - simply inserting two small devices in your ears. The person standing before you says something in Spanish (or some other language) - and instantly you hear a perfect translation. If you have ever read the 'Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy', the Babel Fish may come to mind.
All the implications are too many to discuss here (although the video below presents a few). However, it seems that, if you are in the field of English language teaching, congratulations! We may be counted among the last generation or two to earn our daily bread by teaching English.
Our grandchildren will likely shake their heads in disbelief at the idea of having to spend years to learn (just one!) foreign language.
Does this mean I should stay in bed tomorrow - and call my boss to tell him I'm not coming in to teach? Does this mean my students should give up on English? No, definitely not. That would be a little like despairing the coming destruction of our Earth - billions of years in the future. Universal translators probably won't be on the market for another decade or two.
In the meantime, Here Active Listening sounds like an interesting investment opportunity ...
8 June 2016 Update
It seems that I may be a little behind the times. Watch the Youtube video introducing the instantaneous translation device from Waverly Labs below...
And yet, whenever I read ELT conference titles like, "Trends in EFL" or "Using Technology in EFL", I can't help but think of other recent technological trends, especially those in computing power and artificial intelligence.
TRENDS IN COMPUTATIONAL POWER
In 1965, Gordon E. Moore, the co-founder of Intel and Fairchild Semiconductor, published a paper in which he described a doubling every year in the number of components per integrated circuit. He later revised his prediction in 1975 to a doubling once every two years. This is known as Moore's law.
Despite some criticism (mainly that exponential growth cannot continue indefinitely), predictions of exponential growth in computing power have proven to be, so far, more or less accurate.
- In 1951, the first commercial computer was produced in the United States (the UNIVAC I) and filled an entire large room and required several people to keep it operational.
- By 1967, the computer had shrunk in size and increased in speed enough to guide Apollo 11 to the moon.
- In 1997, an IBM super-computer known as Deep Blue emerged as the victor in a chess match with the reigning chess champion Garry Kasparov. More recently, in 2011, an IBM computer named Watson challenged two expert human contestants on a television quiz show called Jeopardy - and won.
- Now, in 2016, the laptop in front of me is many, many times smaller and more powerful still than those used during the Apollo moon missions.
Given this background, predictions that computer intelligence will exceed human intelligence sometime during the next fifteen to twenty years seem not at all far-fetched. The exact date that this happens has been referred to as the 'singularity'.
GOOGLE TRANSLATE
"And don't just write your paragraph in your own language and then use Google Translate", I regularly admonish the students in my writing class.
"Why not?" they sometimes ask. "Because," I answer, "when you do that, anyone can tell that a computer has translated it! It's okay with individual words and short phrases, but it's terrible with longer chunks of language." I continue, "And if you do, I'll just make you write it over again." Moans from my students.
And then I hesitate a moment before I add - somewhat uncomfortably - "When Google Translate gets better, you won't have to learn English."
AUGMENTED REALITY EARBUDS
ARE ... 'HERE'
In February of this year, livescience.com reported on the unveiling of a new product by 'Here Active Listening' - wireless earbuds (similar to the ones used with your cell phone, but without the connecting wires).
"New earbuds from Here Active Listening can now instantly transform sounds from your surroundings. These wearable devices seek to 'augment reality' - in this case your soundscape. In the future, these devices could enable translation of live speech, much like the 'universal translators' in 'Star Trek', said researchers at Doppler Labs, where the Here system was invented. 'We believe in a future where supercomputers can fit in the ears,' Noah Kraft, co-founder and CEO of Doppler Labs, told Live Science."
WHAT NEXT?
Well, yeah .... That's a lot to wrap your head around, especially
if you're an English teacher, a student of English, or anyone who has ever remembered to pack a phrase book before they set off on that exotic getaway.
Just imagine, in about twenty or thirty years, once computing power has doubled, and doubled, and doubled again - to a point where it far surpasses human intelligence - simply inserting two small devices in your ears. The person standing before you says something in Spanish (or some other language) - and instantly you hear a perfect translation. If you have ever read the 'Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy', the Babel Fish may come to mind.
All the implications are too many to discuss here (although the video below presents a few). However, it seems that, if you are in the field of English language teaching, congratulations! We may be counted among the last generation or two to earn our daily bread by teaching English.
Our grandchildren will likely shake their heads in disbelief at the idea of having to spend years to learn (just one!) foreign language.
Does this mean I should stay in bed tomorrow - and call my boss to tell him I'm not coming in to teach? Does this mean my students should give up on English? No, definitely not. That would be a little like despairing the coming destruction of our Earth - billions of years in the future. Universal translators probably won't be on the market for another decade or two.
In the meantime, Here Active Listening sounds like an interesting investment opportunity ...
8 June 2016 Update
It seems that I may be a little behind the times. Watch the Youtube video introducing the instantaneous translation device from Waverly Labs below...
